STAT CHAT!

STAT CHAT!2021-05-26T14:44:30+10:00
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  • Avatar photoIan Harkin
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      Avatar photoIan Harkin
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        Post count: 22944

        You’ve probably seen the talk about Fever’s poor first quarters this year. It’s a surprise as last year they were clearly the best first quarter team in the comp. Anyway, we decided to look at how all the teams are travelling at this early stage in 2021.

        The best first quarter team so far in SSN in 2021 is Giants, but only just ahead of Swifts. Last year’s two grand finalists are at the bottom!

        1st quarter:
        +20 Giants
        +19 Swifts
        +14 Lightning
        +1 Firebirds
        -3 Thunderbirds
        -11 Magpies
        -17 Fever
        -23 Vixens

        In second quarters so far in 2021, it’s Fever and Giants who are completely dominating. All other teams well behind.

        2nd Quarter:
        +22 Fever
        +21 Giants
        +2 Swifts
        -1 Lightning
        -2 Firebirds
        -8 Magpies
        -14 Vixens
        -20 Thunderbirds

        Vixens dominated 3rd quarters in 2020, and it’s their best Q this year too, but Fever are WAY out in front. Swifts are last!

        3rd Quarter:
        +21 Fever
        +7 Giants
        +2 Vixens
        -1 Lightning
        -1 Magpies
        -6 Thunderbirds
        -9 Firebirds
        -13 Swifts

        Time to look at the final quarter and once again Fever are on top in 2021. This is Firebirds & Magpies’ best Q and Giants’ worst.

        4th Quarter:
        +19 Fever
        +12 Firebirds
        +3 Magpies
        -1 Giants
        -7 Lightning
        -8 Swifts
        -8 Thunderbirds
        -10 Vixens

        It’s early days but on the evidence so far, Fever only need to fix up the slow starts to be close to unbeatable. Giants are starting brilliantly but fading in the 2nd half. Taking the foot off the pedal? Lightning & Swifts also starting well but fading. Interesting.

        Avatar photoIan Harkin
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          Here we are going to have a look at some stats relating to penalties in Super Netball so far this year. Again, it’s still early days, only four games, but not too early to see a trend…

          Firstly we have the average number of penalties conceded per team per match.

          Average pens Rd1-4 2021:
          49.00 Swifts
          50.25 Lightning
          53.50 Giants
          54.25 Magpies
          54.75 Fever
          55.75 Thunderbirds
          60.50 Vixens
          64.25 Firebirds

          Firebirds really need to fix that!

          There is certainly a trend for SSN teams to concede more penalties late. For 3 teams (Lightning, Thunderbirds & Giants) Qtr 1 is their best and Qtr 4 their worst. Fever bucks the trend. They’ve been heavily penalised in the 1st half of matches and improved greatly in the 2nd.

          Finally, we move on to the average number of penalties conceded in total (by both teams) in each quarter. And yes, the last quarter when the pressure is on, is the biggest one.

          Ave pens per Q Rd1-4 2021:
          1st Q – 25.8
          2nd Q – 27.6
          3rd Q – 26.8
          4th Q – 29.1

          Avatar photoIan Harkin
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            This time it’s all about the super shot. There has been a drop off in the number of super shot attempts from last year. We need to take a closer look…

            Firstly, this is the opening 4 rounds of 2020…

            Super shots Rd1-4 2020:
            Giants 36/64 (56%)
            Vixens 33/56 (59%)
            Swifts 32/61 (52%)
            T’birds 26/44 (59%)
            Fever 23/46 (50%)
            Magpies 18/31 (58%)
            Firebirds 16/40 (40%)
            Lightning 15/27 (56%)

            TOTAL 199/369 (53.9%)

            Compare those figures to the LAST 4 rounds of 2020…

            Super shots Rd11-14 2020:
            Giants 37/66 (56%)
            Swifts 31/55 (56%)
            T’birds 28/54 (52%)
            Vixens 19/26 (73%)
            Magpies 19/36 (53%)
            Lightning 18/28 (64%)
            Firebirds 14/31 (45%)
            Fever 13/29 (45%)

            TOTAL 179/325 (55.1%)

            And these are the figures for the opening 4 rounds of this year…

            Super shots Rd1-4 2021:
            Giants 30/58 (52%)
            Firebirds 27/52 (52%)
            T’birds 25/48 (52%)
            Vixens 18/39 (46%)
            Magpies 15/30 (50%)
            Fever 10/23 (43%)
            Lightning 9/18 (50%)
            Swifts 9/19 (47%)

            TOTAL 143/287 (49.8%)

            Conclusions: Initially, most teams used the super shot a LOT. Then it settled down. Shooters became more selective. So volume went down and accuracy up slightly. But now in the 2nd season, defences have improved their tactics. Volume and accuracy are both down.

            Here’s another interesting one. There were 56 less super shots scored in the first 4 rounds this year compared to 2020. So that means the total score should be about 56 less, right? Check it out.

            Total score:
            2020 first 4 rounds – 1927
            2021 first 4 rounds – 1925

            Avatar photoIan Harkin
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              Well, as we’ve seen, Vixens won yesterday, beating the Firebirds 66-64. It was their first win since the 2020 SSN grand final, which was played on the same court. The score that day… 66-64!

              In 77 games since their introduction, yesterday was only the second time in Super Netball that a team has turned what would have otherwise been a loss into a win thanks to super shots.

              Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                We spoke recently about how teams went in each Q. In the first 4 rds, Fever were poor 1st Q, then great after that, while Giants had a great 1st half, then faded.

                Round 5… sure enough, Fever lost the first Q, Giants won the first half, then faded and Fever won!

                .

                So far:

                In the first half Giants are +49, but in the second half they’re -3.

                In the first quarter Fever are -21, but in the next three quarters they’re +67!

                Very different form patterns, but when added up together, both teams end up exactly the same… +46

                Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                  Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                    A deep dive into Super Netball’s rolling substitutions at the halfway point of the season
                    By Brittany Carter

                    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-18/super-netball-rolling-subs/100224748

                    Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                      It’s time to look at how teams are travelling in regards to the last 5 minutes of each Q. Now, the first thing to say is that being successful during this period doesn’t necessarily mean lots of super shots (although that helps). It means being clever tactically.

                      Firstly, let’s look at when super shots aren’t in play. Look at Firebirds. Only once this season have they been outscored during that 40 minutes of the game. They even beat Fever 49-46 during that period on Sunday. On the other hand, Giants aren’t going so well.

                      Now let’s look at the power play. Look at the turnaround in fortunes of Firebirds and Giants. Meanwhile, the Vixens who were so strong during the power 5 last year are way down the bottom. The last 5 mins wasn’t a strength of Fever last year, but look at them now.

                      To show the importance of playing well in the power 5, only twice out of 28 games has the team which scored the most goals during this time, lost the game. Giants’ sudden form slump has corresponded with a drop off in the power 5, pipped in both their past 2 games.

                      Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                        Beating Fever relies on patience and few errors. Swifts and Lightning both did that for 60 minutes and came up with less than 20 turnovers.

                        How about this turnaround:
                        In rd3 Lightning had 22 turnovers to Fever 16.
                        In rd10 Fever had 21 turnovers to Lightning 16!

                        Number of turnovers by Fever’s opponents in 2021:
                        Vixens 23 – Lost by 14
                        Swifts 23 – Lost by 8
                        Lightning 22 – Lost by 15
                        Tbirds 21 – Lost by 8
                        Giants 23 – Lost by 1
                        Magpies 29 – Lost by 23
                        Firebirds 21 – Lost by 10
                        Swifts 13 – Won by 1
                        Lightning 16 – Won by 4

                        Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                          As we gear up for SSN finals, some stats from games between the teams. Firstly, penalties conceded.

                          Average penalties:
                          48.0 – Lightning
                          51.8 – Swifts
                          54.2 – Giants
                          54.8 – Fever

                          Least: 35 – Lightning (v Swifts)
                          Most: 66 – Giants (v Lightning)

                          Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                            Now we look at the number of turnovers against each team in matches between the semi-finalists.

                            Average turnovers:
                            18.7 – Swifts
                            19.8 – Giants
                            20.3 – Lightning
                            20.7 – Fever

                            Least: 13 – Swifts (v Fever)
                            Most: 24 – Fever (v Giants)

                            Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                              Now, it’s the number of possession gains by teams in these matches.

                              Average gains:
                              13.2 – Lightning
                              11.3 – Fever
                              11.3 – Giants
                              10.8 – Swifts

                              Most: 24 – Lightning (v Giants)
                              Least: 4 – Lightning (v Fever)

                              Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                                Now we move on to super shots scored. And it’s no surprise who tops this list.

                                Average super shots scored:
                                7.2 – Giants
                                4.0 – Fever
                                2.0 – Lightning
                                2.0 – Swifts

                                Most: 10 – Giants (v Fever)
                                Least: 0 – Lightning & Swifts two times each

                                Fun fact… out of the 12 matches played between this year’s semi-finalists, only on two occasions did the team scoring the most super shots go on to win the game (Giants both times). And on four occasions, the winning team has scored no super shots at all.

                                Avatar photoIan Harkin
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                                  This is how many successful shots (regular goals & super shots) each team made per game.

                                  Average shots made:
                                  62.2 – Fever
                                  58.5 – Lightning
                                  58.3 – Swifts
                                  53.7 – Giants

                                  Most: 69 Swifts (v Lightning)
                                  Least: 45 Giants (v Swifts)

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