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STAT CHAT!2021-05-26T14:44:30+10:00

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  • Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396
    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    You’ve probably seen the talk about Fever’s poor first quarters this year. It’s a surprise as last year they were clearly the best first quarter team in the comp. Anyway, we decided to look at how all the teams are travelling at this early stage in 2021.

    The best first quarter team so far in SSN in 2021 is Giants, but only just ahead of Swifts. Last year’s two grand finalists are at the bottom!

    1st quarter:
    +20 Giants
    +19 Swifts
    +14 Lightning
    +1 Firebirds
    -3 Thunderbirds
    -11 Magpies
    -17 Fever
    -23 Vixens

    In second quarters so far in 2021, it’s Fever and Giants who are completely dominating. All other teams well behind.

    2nd Quarter:
    +22 Fever
    +21 Giants
    +2 Swifts
    -1 Lightning
    -2 Firebirds
    -8 Magpies
    -14 Vixens
    -20 Thunderbirds

    Vixens dominated 3rd quarters in 2020, and it’s their best Q this year too, but Fever are WAY out in front. Swifts are last!

    3rd Quarter:
    +21 Fever
    +7 Giants
    +2 Vixens
    -1 Lightning
    -1 Magpies
    -6 Thunderbirds
    -9 Firebirds
    -13 Swifts

    Time to look at the final quarter and once again Fever are on top in 2021. This is Firebirds & Magpies’ best Q and Giants’ worst.

    4th Quarter:
    +19 Fever
    +12 Firebirds
    +3 Magpies
    -1 Giants
    -7 Lightning
    -8 Swifts
    -8 Thunderbirds
    -10 Vixens

    It’s early days but on the evidence so far, Fever only need to fix up the slow starts to be close to unbeatable. Giants are starting brilliantly but fading in the 2nd half. Taking the foot off the pedal? Lightning & Swifts also starting well but fading. Interesting.

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    Here we are going to have a look at some stats relating to penalties in Super Netball so far this year. Again, it’s still early days, only four games, but not too early to see a trend…

    Firstly we have the average number of penalties conceded per team per match.

    Average pens Rd1-4 2021:
    49.00 Swifts
    50.25 Lightning
    53.50 Giants
    54.25 Magpies
    54.75 Fever
    55.75 Thunderbirds
    60.50 Vixens
    64.25 Firebirds

    Firebirds really need to fix that!

    There is certainly a trend for SSN teams to concede more penalties late. For 3 teams (Lightning, Thunderbirds & Giants) Qtr 1 is their best and Qtr 4 their worst. Fever bucks the trend. They’ve been heavily penalised in the 1st half of matches and improved greatly in the 2nd.

    Finally, we move on to the average number of penalties conceded in total (by both teams) in each quarter. And yes, the last quarter when the pressure is on, is the biggest one.

    Ave pens per Q Rd1-4 2021:
    1st Q – 25.8
    2nd Q – 27.6
    3rd Q – 26.8
    4th Q – 29.1

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    This time it’s all about the super shot. There has been a drop off in the number of super shot attempts from last year. We need to take a closer look…

    Firstly, this is the opening 4 rounds of 2020…

    Super shots Rd1-4 2020:
    Giants 36/64 (56%)
    Vixens 33/56 (59%)
    Swifts 32/61 (52%)
    T’birds 26/44 (59%)
    Fever 23/46 (50%)
    Magpies 18/31 (58%)
    Firebirds 16/40 (40%)
    Lightning 15/27 (56%)

    TOTAL 199/369 (53.9%)

    Compare those figures to the LAST 4 rounds of 2020…

    Super shots Rd11-14 2020:
    Giants 37/66 (56%)
    Swifts 31/55 (56%)
    T’birds 28/54 (52%)
    Vixens 19/26 (73%)
    Magpies 19/36 (53%)
    Lightning 18/28 (64%)
    Firebirds 14/31 (45%)
    Fever 13/29 (45%)

    TOTAL 179/325 (55.1%)

    And these are the figures for the opening 4 rounds of this year…

    Super shots Rd1-4 2021:
    Giants 30/58 (52%)
    Firebirds 27/52 (52%)
    T’birds 25/48 (52%)
    Vixens 18/39 (46%)
    Magpies 15/30 (50%)
    Fever 10/23 (43%)
    Lightning 9/18 (50%)
    Swifts 9/19 (47%)

    TOTAL 143/287 (49.8%)

    Conclusions: Initially, most teams used the super shot a LOT. Then it settled down. Shooters became more selective. So volume went down and accuracy up slightly. But now in the 2nd season, defences have improved their tactics. Volume and accuracy are both down.

    Here’s another interesting one. There were 56 less super shots scored in the first 4 rounds this year compared to 2020. So that means the total score should be about 56 less, right? Check it out.

    Total score:
    2020 first 4 rounds – 1927
    2021 first 4 rounds – 1925

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    Well, as we’ve seen, Vixens won yesterday, beating the Firebirds 66-64. It was their first win since the 2020 SSN grand final, which was played on the same court. The score that day… 66-64!

    In 77 games since their introduction, yesterday was only the second time in Super Netball that a team has turned what would have otherwise been a loss into a win thanks to super shots.

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    We spoke recently about how teams went in each Q. In the first 4 rds, Fever were poor 1st Q, then great after that, while Giants had a great 1st half, then faded.

    Round 5… sure enough, Fever lost the first Q, Giants won the first half, then faded and Fever won!

    .

    So far:

    In the first half Giants are +49, but in the second half they’re -3.

    In the first quarter Fever are -21, but in the next three quarters they’re +67!

    Very different form patterns, but when added up together, both teams end up exactly the same… +46

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    A deep dive into Super Netball’s rolling substitutions at the halfway point of the season
    By Brittany Carter

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-18/super-netball-rolling-subs/100224748

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    It’s time to look at how teams are travelling in regards to the last 5 minutes of each Q. Now, the first thing to say is that being successful during this period doesn’t necessarily mean lots of super shots (although that helps). It means being clever tactically.

    Firstly, let’s look at when super shots aren’t in play. Look at Firebirds. Only once this season have they been outscored during that 40 minutes of the game. They even beat Fever 49-46 during that period on Sunday. On the other hand, Giants aren’t going so well.

    Now let’s look at the power play. Look at the turnaround in fortunes of Firebirds and Giants. Meanwhile, the Vixens who were so strong during the power 5 last year are way down the bottom. The last 5 mins wasn’t a strength of Fever last year, but look at them now.

    To show the importance of playing well in the power 5, only twice out of 28 games has the team which scored the most goals during this time, lost the game. Giants’ sudden form slump has corresponded with a drop off in the power 5, pipped in both their past 2 games.

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    Beating Fever relies on patience and few errors. Swifts and Lightning both did that for 60 minutes and came up with less than 20 turnovers.

    How about this turnaround:
    In rd3 Lightning had 22 turnovers to Fever 16.
    In rd10 Fever had 21 turnovers to Lightning 16!

    Number of turnovers by Fever’s opponents in 2021:
    Vixens 23 – Lost by 14
    Swifts 23 – Lost by 8
    Lightning 22 – Lost by 15
    Tbirds 21 – Lost by 8
    Giants 23 – Lost by 1
    Magpies 29 – Lost by 23
    Firebirds 21 – Lost by 10
    Swifts 13 – Won by 1
    Lightning 16 – Won by 4

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    As we gear up for SSN finals, some stats from games between the teams. Firstly, penalties conceded.

    Average penalties:
    48.0 – Lightning
    51.8 – Swifts
    54.2 – Giants
    54.8 – Fever

    Least: 35 – Lightning (v Swifts)
    Most: 66 – Giants (v Lightning)

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    Now we look at the number of turnovers against each team in matches between the semi-finalists.

    Average turnovers:
    18.7 – Swifts
    19.8 – Giants
    20.3 – Lightning
    20.7 – Fever

    Least: 13 – Swifts (v Fever)
    Most: 24 – Fever (v Giants)

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    Now, it’s the number of possession gains by teams in these matches.

    Average gains:
    13.2 – Lightning
    11.3 – Fever
    11.3 – Giants
    10.8 – Swifts

    Most: 24 – Lightning (v Giants)
    Least: 4 – Lightning (v Fever)

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    Now we move on to super shots scored. And it’s no surprise who tops this list.

    Average super shots scored:
    7.2 – Giants
    4.0 – Fever
    2.0 – Lightning
    2.0 – Swifts

    Most: 10 – Giants (v Fever)
    Least: 0 – Lightning & Swifts two times each

    Fun fact… out of the 12 matches played between this year’s semi-finalists, only on two occasions did the team scoring the most super shots go on to win the game (Giants both times). And on four occasions, the winning team has scored no super shots at all.

    Ian Harkin
    Moderator
    Post count: 10396

    This is how many successful shots (regular goals & super shots) each team made per game.

    Average shots made:
    62.2 – Fever
    58.5 – Lightning
    58.3 – Swifts
    53.7 – Giants

    Most: 69 Swifts (v Lightning)
    Least: 45 Giants (v Swifts)

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