NS PREVIEW: 2024 SSN Preliminary Final

Melbourne Vixens v West Coast Fever

John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Saturday, July 27

5pm AEST

PREVIOUS CLASHES

Round 7: Vixens 76 def Fever 65 at RAC Arena

Vixens were the only visiting team to win at RAC Arena this season, and they did it in fine style. Their attack was just too slick for Fever, with Kate Moloney, Hannah Mundy, Kiera Austin, and Sophie Garbin all playing well. Austin in particular proved too hard to stop for the Fever defence. Rudi Ellis at goal keeper was able to restrict Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard to 43 goals, while Emily Mannix and Jo Weston did a great job of curtailing the effectiveness of the feeders.

POTM: Kiera Austin

Round 13: Fever 68 def Vixens 67 at John Cain Arena

This game was a thriller, only decided in the final minute with the away team winning once again. Unlike the first clash, the Fever defence was more successful and forced Sophie Garbin to the bench for periods. Lily Graham replaced her and threatened to take the game away from Fever with six super shots, but it was to no avail. Fever held on with the duo of Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard and Alice Teague-Neeld starring in attack, and Kadie-Ann Dehaney in defence.

POTM: Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard

Kiera Austin in her team’s Round 7 MVP performance. Image Clinton Bradbury/Bradbury Photography

WHY THEY CAN WIN

Vixens:

Vixens showed in Round 7 what they are capable of. It was almost the complete performance as they comfortably defeated Fever at the Green Army’s fortress. They need only rediscover something close to that form and they can certainly win in Melbourne. John Cain Arena has been a successful venue for them, and they’ve won 14 of their last 17 games there, by an average of 9 points.
Vixens have their full squad available for just the third time this year. It has been an injury-affected season, and the squad getting back to full fitness will be reassuring to coach Simone McKinnis as it gives her more options.
Despite recent poor results, Vixens still boast the world cup winning shooting combination. Sophie Garbin and Kiera Austin are both confidence players. If they get a good start to this match, that will go a long way towards boosting their confidence and winning the game. Austin in particular, is important to the team’s success. If Vixens win, it’s almost certain that she will have a good game.
Versatility in defence is a big plus for Vixens as they prepare to take on the best attacking team in the league. When the teams met in Perth earlier in the year, Vixens were in the midst of a run of injuries, so it was through necessity as much as anything that Rudi Ellis lined up against Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard. She proceeded to do a fantastic job against the champion shooter. Emily Mannix and Jo Weston played goal defence and wing defence respectively on that occasion. Now, Kate Eddy has returned to the team and this gives McKinnis more options when it comes to taking on the Fever attack end.

Sophie Garbin and Kiera Austin – a formidable shooting combination for Melbourne Vixens in 2024. Image: May Bailey | Clusterpix Photography

Fever:

Momentum is a big thing in finals, and there’s no doubt that of these two teams, Fever has it. They enter this game off four straight wins, and one of those was a win over Vixens on their home court. Fever have also won five of their last seven games against the Vixens, so they should have the edge in confidence leading into the match.
The attacking potency of the Fever team is their strength. And of course, Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard is the dominant force in that attack. When these teams last met, she shot 60/61. In 15 matches this season, she has missed just 14 one-point attempts, while also landing numerous super shots when needed. Her mere presence on the court means Fever has to go into any game confident of victory.
The attack end isn’t all about Fowler-Nembhard however. The clever play of Alice Teague-Neeld at wing attack is crucial to Fever’s success. The addition of Shanice Beckford at goal attack this year shakes things up as she plays a very different role to Sasha Glasgow of previous years. Meanwhile Kelsey Browne brings all of her experience to the midcourt. These three players combined for an incredible 66 goal assists last week.
The Fever defence is clicking at just the right time. For much of the season, it appeared that Dan Ryan was unsure of the best combination to use, and there is still quite a bit of shuffling in the back three positions. But the recent outstanding form of goal keeper Kadie-Ann Dehaney has no doubt helped answer some of those questions. In the latest clash between these two teams, Dehaney, Fran Williams, and Sunday Aryang combined for 13 possession gains.

Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard get the shot away against Emily Mannix. Image – Aliesha Vicars.

WHERE THEY WILL BE CHALLENGED

Vixens:

Vixens have unfortunately picked the worst possible time to have a form slump. Flying high on top of the ladder for most of the season, they won 10 of their first 11 games, but have lost three of the past four. That includes a loss (albeit a narrow one) to Fever, and two big losses to the Thunderbirds which could have severely dented their confidence. Their performance in the major semi final remains the biggest loss ever in Super Netball finals history. But their reward for finishing top two is a second chance, and they now need to rebound quickly and rediscover the form from earlier in the year.
Vixens have underperformed in their recent finals’ history, having lost four of their last attempts. Of those, three of their losses have been against Fever and one against the Thunderbirds. How much that, and their big losses against the Thunderbirds will play on their minds, is anyone’s guess.
With so much importance resting on the performance of the Vixens’ attack end, there’s no doubt that Fever will apply the pressure there. In their latest clash, Sophie Garbin, in particular, had a tough time against Kadie-ann Dehaney, finishing with just 17 goals and five general play turnovers in 30 minutes of game time. Garbin was replaced by Lily Graham who did a fine job for a rookie, but Simone McKinnis will be looking for an improved showing from her number one goal shooter this week. Unfortunately for the Vixens, they’ve relied heavily on their two starting shooters for most of the season, with Graham potentially lacking big game experience.
In their opening 11 rounds, Vixens averaged 13.7 gains per game. Since then, and coinciding with their form slump, they’ve averaged just 9.5 gains per game. At the same time, the Vixens have been the most heavily penalised team for contact in the league. Their defensive end has some work to do to replicate their earlier success.

Kadie-Ann Dehaney rejecting a Sophie Garbin shot. Image Clinton Bradbury/Bradbury Photography

Fever:

While goal shooter Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard has been as strong as ever this year, there have been some cracks appearing in the goal attack position. While she has generally played well, Shanice Beckford has sometimes struggled with accuracy or been expensive in terms of turnovers. Meanwhile, Olivia Wilkinson is a completely different style of player. In her first season, Wilkinson is still a work in progress, and while confident at the post, she lacks some of the attacking flair of Beckford. So, on two occasions, Ryan has moved regular wing attack Alice Teague-Neeld into that position. If Fever is to win, the goal attack position will be vitally important whoever fills that role.
Fever’s supershot strategy will be more important than ever, and their 61 successful attempts across the season is well short of the Vixens’ 93. However, accuracy between the two sides is relatively similar, with Fever shooting at 49.82%, and the Vixens just three percent better on 52.76%.
Alice Teague-Neeld’s connection with Fowler-Nembhard is of crucial importance if Fever want to succeed. The first time the two teams met this season, Weston’s long arms forced Teague-Neeld into a number of errors and misfeeds. The wing attack tidied up her game when Fever defeated Vixens, sidestepping around Weston’s reach. Teague-Neeld will need to be at the top of her game to get past the experienced Australian Diamond.

Alice Teague-Neeld looks over the long arms of Jo Weston. Image Aliesha Vicars

QUIET ACHIEVER

Vixens:

Coming into this season, we’re not sure how many people thought Rudi Ellis would be playing a big part in the Vixens’ title chase, but that’s exactly what she has done. After warming the bench at the Fever, she has gone on to become a regular starting player this year. When the team was struck by injury early in the season, she was thrust into the lineup, and she has shown that she definitely belongs at this level.

Read Elly McNerney’s profile of Rudi Ellis here.

Rudi Ellis troubling Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard on the take. Image: Clinton Bradbury/Bradbury Photography

Fever:

While English captain Fran Williams has spent more time on the bench than most people expected, she’s played her role to perfection. Coach Dan Ryan has rotated his defenders based largely on match-ups, and Williams has been particularly effective in a shut down role against crafty goal attacks. Under her watch, Fever have been more effective at keeping players locked out of the two point zone than in previous seasons. Against the Vixens who have three shooters prepared to go long, this will be crucial, so look to see Williams gain plenty of court time.

Read Jenny Sinclair’s profile of Fran Williams here.

Fran Williams has been an effective defensive rotation for Fever. Image: May Bailey/Netball Scoop

A FEW KEY MATCH-UPS

Sophie Garbin v Kadie-Ann Dehaney

The current form of these two players is trending in opposite directions. Much like her team, Sophie Garbin had an outstanding start to the season, but has suffered from a drop in performance and confidence. She has been put right off her game in recent matches, and on one of those occasions, the opponent was Kadie-Ann Dehaney. Dehaney is at the top of her game right now. She is putting great pressure on the shot of everyone she comes up against, and this could be particularly crucial if Garbin shoots from range – she’s the least accurate shooter on court from this distance.

Dehaney had seven possession gains in the Round 13 clash between these two sides, and she bettered that with eight in the minor semi final against Lightning. If Vixens are to win, Garbin will need to stand up to the intense challenge that Dehaney will no doubt present to her.

Kiera Austin v Sunday Aryang or Fran Williams

Austin is the barometer of the Vixens – when she’s having a good game and going accurately to post, Vixens rarely lose. Aryang and Williams play very different styles of game. Aryang tends to sit off the body, and appear from nowhere for the intercept, while Williams close checking style and anticipation often sees her in the right place at the right time. If Fever want to succeed, they need to unsettle Austin early, and not let her settle into a rhythm. Coach Ryan is likely to switch his defenders to keep Austin guessing, with Williams particularly crucial during the two point period, from which range Austin is the most accurate shooter at 57.3%.

Kate Moloney v Kelsey Browne or Jess Anstiss

Moloney has been the stand out centre in this season’s competition, so who will get the job of matching up against her? Will it be Browne’s speed, or Anstiss’ more close-checking style of play. The decision will most likely rest on whether Fever opt for a more attacking or defensive structure – both of which have had their moments of success or challenge.

While Moloney has always been the heart and soul of the Vixens, she’s also stepped up in Liz Watson’s absence to feed the circle beautifully. And with Garbin’s relative lack of height compared to some post shooters, Vixens have relied on working their angles and triangles around the circle to find her. Moloney will look to get to circle’s edge to be one of those triangular options, and is always good for a few pickups per game. She’ll need to be worn like a glove to reduce her effectiveness.