Scoop Preview: SSN 2023 Grand Final

Scoop Preview: SSN 2023 Grand Final

By |2023-07-06T06:47:16+10:00July 6th, 2023|Categories: AUS, Featured, Match Previews, SSN|Tags: , , , |0 Comments

Cover images: May Bailey

It’s time for the big one. Last week, the NSW Swifts got up in the final seconds to defeat Fever in the Preliminary Final and make their way into the Grand Final against the Adelaide Thunderbirds in Melbourne. On that bizarre night in round two when the power went out, who would have predicted that those same two teams would be playing off for the title of Super Netball champions 15 weeks later? It’s been a crazy season for sure, with lots of ups and downs. But we’re left with two worthy grand finalists and there will be great stories no matter who comes out on top.

In Australia, the match will be broadcast on Fox Sports, Kayo, and Kayo Freebies for those without a subscription. In New Zealand, it will be shown on TVNZ+. In the Pacific Islands, it will be shown on PacificAus TV. Elsewhere in the world, you can stream the game on Netball Australia TV.  You can also follow live scoring and statistics thanks to Champion Data.

 

Before we get on to the Prelim Final, take another look at our SSN MVP Awards

And check out our wrap of last week’s exciting Preliminary Final

Jubilation for the Swifts as they make their way into the Grand Final. Image May Bailey/Clusterpix


THE DECIDER

The big one is here. On Saturday night, two old rivals battle it out for the Suncorp Super Netball Grand Final. The Adelaide Thunderbirds will be playing in their first National League grand final for 10 years and searching for their fifth title overall. Their opponents, the NSW Swifts will be aiming for their eighth title and their third in five years. It will be interesting to see the size of the crowd in Melbourne and which team gets the most support.

There has been so much excitement, controversy and surprise in the past two gripping weeks of finals netball, yet we’ve somehow still arrived at the Grand Final with the teams which finished in the top two positions on the ladder. And they should certainly be getting to know each other very well. It will be their third matchup in a short space of time. In fact, it is four weeks since Thunderbirds actually played someone other than the NSW Swifts.


HOW THEY MATCH UP

The overall head-to-head record between these two teams in Super Netball is heavily weighted in Swifts’ favour. But not nearly as heavily as it was prior to this year. Before this season, Thunderbirds had just one solitary win from the 12 SSN clashes between these two teams. That was in round seven, 2021. But in 2023 so far, from three meetings, Thunderbirds have had two nail biting wins and that infamous draw in round two. Thunderbirds are in fact the only team that Swifts hasn’t beaten (so far) in 2023.

 

Round 2: The night the power went out in Adelaide

There really isn’t much you can take out of the round two clash, other than it was neatly poised at 25-25 when the lights went out. Swifts won the first quarter by four and Thunderbirds reversed that, winning the second quarter by the same margin. The statistics from the game were quite even, except that Swifts had been less accurate and Thunderbirds had scored three super shots to half time and Swifts none. Just one super shot attempt in a half of netball is certainly very different to how Swifts have been playing in recent matches.

 

Elle Cardwell and Helen Housby catchup after the match was called off. Image: Hannah Howard | On the Ball Media

A catchup with your countrywoman when the lights go out. Image: Hannah Howard | On the Ball Media

 

Round 14: Swifts’ streak stopped by Thunderbirds

After the debacle of round two, we had to wait another 12 rounds before the teams met each other again, this time in Sydney. And by this stage, Swifts were on a nine-game winning streak and had climbed the ladder all the way to the minor premiership. Meanwhile, Thunderbirds, who had been on top of the ladder for a period, were now sitting third and looking vulnerable after two disappointing losses to teams outside the finals. So, it’s fair to say that the home team were heavy favourites, especially with shooter Helen Housby on an incredible run of great form with six straight games of over 100 Nissan Net Points.

With nothing really riding on the result for Swifts (they couldn’t lose the minor premiership no matter what), perhaps they could have subconsciously taken the game easier than normal. Whatever the case, Thunderbirds gave them a huge challenge, and after finishing the stronger, they handed Swifts their first defeat in two months. Playing a big part was the Jamaican defensive pairing of Latanya Wilson and Shamera Sterling who had an extraordinary 18 possession gains between them. Despite landing six super shots, Housby actually had one of her quietest games of the season, and it was her English counterpart in Eleanor Cardwell who came out on top in that mini-battle.

 

Helen Housby had a tough game against the Thunderbirds defence in round 14. Image: May Bailey

 

Major Semi: Thunderbirds win thriller to book grand final spot

The results of round 14 saw Thunderbirds move up to second spot, and that meant the two teams faced each other again the following week in the major semi-final. It turned out to be an absolute classic. In another topsy-turvy match, Swifts led by five goals at three-quarter time, but Thunderbirds finished the game well. With time running out, Lucy Austin missed what would have been a match-winning super shot, the ball was rebounded by Swifts and that appeared to be game over. Not the case. A loose pass by Maddy Turner was intercepted brilliantly by Tayla Williams in the centre third.

Williams sent the ball straight back to Austin who duly scored the levelling goal as time ran out. The score was 58-58 and extra time was required for the only time this season. With all the momentum, Thunderbirds played the extra time period almost to perfection and recorded a 64-62 victory. Their defence end was much quieter in this match, so it was the composure of Williams and Georgie Horjus in the midcourt that proved the difference. Likewise, the combination of Austin and Cardwell was crucial. Austin’s shooting under pressure was that of a seasoned veteran.

For Swifts, Housby was back to her best, while Turner and Sarah Klau had good games in defence and Paige Hadley was solid as usual. But Maddy Proud had a very inconsistent day, recording 24 goal assists, but also eight general play turnovers. She will be hoping to cut down on those on Saturday. Young shooter Sophie Fawns was given the incredibly tough task of coming on with just three minutes left and landing super shots. She missed with her two attempts. She would however go on to redeem herself well and truly by being Swifts’ hero in the preliminary final against Fever.

 

Thunderbirds’ reaction to winning the major semi final. Image: May Bailey


ROAD TO THE GRAND FINAL

Thunderbirds: Played 15, Won 10, Lost 4, Drawn 1, Ladder position 2nd

For a team with a good record, Thunderbirds have had a strange year. On occasions, they have looked brilliant, but at other times, they have looked anything but. In round 10, they were soundly beaten by the Vixens. The margin was 21 goals, and on that day, they didn’t look anything like a team bound for the grand final. But to demonstrate their ability, that was the only loss they had all season against a finals team. They’ve shown their grit with four close wins over Fever and Swifts. Three of the Thunderbirds’ four defeats in 2023 have come to teams which finished outside the top four. Two of those came in rounds 12 and 13, and again, at that time, the grand final looked to be a long way off. But they rebounded straight away with back-to-back wins against Swifts, and here they are.

Swifts: Played 16, Won 11, Lost 4, Drawn 1, Ladder position 1st

The Swifts started the season very slowly. In part, this was probably a case of getting used to having Romelda Aiken-George in the team. They started the year with a loss at the hands of Collingwood. Strangely, the Magpies were in fact the only team to beat both grand finalists. After four rounds, the Swifts were sitting in sixth place, and only the most parochial fan would have thought they were a chance of winning the minor premiership from there. But that is exactly what happened. They went on an extraordinary run of nine straight wins, several of them by narrow margins, and surged up the ladder to top spot. After the two narrow losses to Thunderbirds, they fought back for a heart-stopping win against Fever in the Preliminary Final to claim their place in the big one.

 

Sophie Fawns belied her youth to win the Preliminary Final for the Swifts. Image: May Bailey


STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

Stats say it’s Thunderbirds’ defence v Swifts’ attack

It’s no surprise that these two teams have had close matches. When you look at the above comparison, it’s like a perfect storm of defence versus attack. It stands out that Thunderbirds are leading in a handful of crucial defensive categories; gains, intercepts, defensive rebounds and pickups, and that all comes together to give them an average score against of under 53 goals. In a competition where teams are regularly scoring over 60, that is quite incredible. On the other hand, they are only averaging 56.5 goals per game themselves, the lowest in the league.

Swifts are only leading one of the above statistical categories, but it’s an important one. It’s super shot accuracy. It must be pointed out that they are also second in seven other categories. On average, they are scoring almost 12 more goals per match than Thunderbirds, but also conceding 11.5 goals more. One important advantage Swifts have is the 76.2% centre pass to goal and 69.2% gain to goal rates. If they can maintain figures close to that against the Thunderbirds’ defence, it will go a long way towards victory.

 

Thunderbirds’ star defender meets Swifts’ star attacker. Image: May Bailey


HOW WILL THEY LINE UP?

Swifts starting seven predictable – Thunderbirds not so much

The Swifts starting line-up is quite easy to forecast. While there are likely to be changes made during the game, the starting seven should be as listed above. That is how they’ve lined up in most matches, and how Briony Akle has chosen to start them in both recent matches against Thunderbirds. For Tania Obst, things are much more uncertain. The Thunderbirds team above is how they have started recently, but it hasn’t taken long for changes to be made.

Matilda Garrett in particular, has been replaced quite early on. Perhaps Obst will start with Wilson in goal defence instead. Likewise, Williams had a tremendous game coming off the bench in the major semi final. Maybe she will get the start at centre? Whatever the case, there are great match ups all over the court, but a lot of the interest will naturally be centred on the Swifts shooting circle and the potential battles between Sterling, Garrett and Wilson for Thunderbirds and Aiken-George, Housby and Fawns for Swifts. Whoever gets on top in that contest could decide the grand final.

Not that the other shooting circle will be without drama as Cardwell and Klau clash. And the potential match up between Williams and Proud at centre will be another highlight. In the past two weeks, youngsters Austin and Fawns have risen to the occasion. Who will be the hero this week? Will Aiken-George get another title with Swifts to add to her three with Firebirds? Or will her Jamaican teammates Sterling and Wilson get their first? Which English shooter will come out on top, Housby or Cardwell? There are so many questions to be answered at John Cain Arena on Saturday.

 

Sarah Klau and Eleanor Cardwell have eyes for the ball. Image: May Bailey

 

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