NS PREVIEW: 2024 Suncorp Super Netball Semi Finals

Forget Christmas as the ‘most wonderful time of the year’ –  it’s time for the 2024 Super Netball finals. It took until the last few minutes of Round 14 to confirm that Thunderbirds, Vixens and Fever would be ranked first through third respectively, with Lightning creeping into fourth place.

So let’s set the scene: last year’s premiers and this season’s minor premiers, Thunderbirds, look to be in the box seat to take out back to back titles, after a red hot run of form that’s seen them win six games in a row, by an average of 15 points. The super consistent Vixens sit in second place, but have lost two of their last three matches, and three of their previous four finals matches. Fever have integrated six new players into their club, defying most pundits who predicted they’d end outside the mix. And Lightning, despite some brilliant recruiting, have only just managed to sneak into fourth with a meager six wins but pushed Thunderbirds all the way last weekend. 

And if you’re a stats nerd and want the most accurate win indicator, keep an eye on the magic number of 75. Champion Data has crunched the numbers, and if a side converts more than 75% of their centre passes, they have a 90% chance of winning. Less than 75%, that figure drops to just 29%. And any side that has converted more than 78% this season has won their match – every single time! 

So just where will the finals be won and lost?

 

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MAJOR SEMI FINAL

Adelaide Thunderbirds v Melbourne Vixens

Adelaide 36ers Arena, Adelaide

Saturday, July 20

5pm AEST (4:30pm local time)

 

Previous clashes

Round 2: Vixens 54 def Thunderbirds 53 at John Cain Area

This match was close all the way. After struggling for some of the game, Kiera Austin really stood up in the final quarter and led Vixens to victory, finally getting the winning goal with just four seconds to go. POTM Kate Moloney

 

Round 12: Thunderbirds 73 def Vixens 58 at Adelaide Entertainment Centre

After a close beginning, Thunderbirds got on top in the second quarter and dominated from there. Their defence provided the ball and their attack capitalised, producing their highest ever score. POTM Shamera Sterling-Humphrey

 

WHY THEY CAN WIN

Thunderbirds:

1. The Thunderbirds are undefeated in Adelaide this season, and this will be their second home game in a row, reducing their travel burden. They also have experience on their side, with every player bar Lauren Frew having played finals before.
2. Coach Tania Obst has been preparing her team for finals all season, slowly but surely building a new look attacking end, while also testing multiple combinations all across the court. Every position has at least two players who’ve nailed what’s needed from them. 
3. Thunderbirds quite simply are the best defensive team in the league, bar none. The two superstars, Shamera Sterling-Humphrey and Latanya Wilson, are ably supported by every other player on court, while the value of Tilly Garrett’s shut down game is often overlooked. We’ve also seen Tayla Williams spend short stints at wing attack – a move that could potentially be a masterstroke, given that it allows for five players on court who can all win serious amounts of ball. 
4. Romelda Aiken-George would have to be one of the most consistent players of all time – she rarely has a bad game, and has filled her role at goal shooter to perfection. 
5. The Georgie Horjus factor! The goal attack/wing attack has incredible attacking nous and has appeared unflappable since she arrived on the scene. Thunderbirds’ poorest performance of the year came against the lowly-ranked Firebirds in round 8 when Georgie Horjus was out through injury. 

 

Vixens:

1. The Vixens shooting combination of Sophie Garbin and Kiera Austin is one of the most potent in the league. The Diamonds duo have developed a strong partnership across the season, and both are happy to shoot long. Having twin threats from range makes them very hard to defend during the super shot period, and they’ve claimed a total of 86 this season, compared to the Thunderbirds’ more lowly 34. 
2. Vixens have one of the tallest backlines in the league, although it came about through the unfortunate injury to Kate Eddy. With her missing, Rudi Ellis has stepped up at goal keeper, Jo Weston has been a menace at wing defence, and Emily Mannix is having one of the seasons of her life, mainly at goal defence. 
3. At centre, Kate Moloney just doesn’t make errors. She has had just 29 turnovers this season. She also leads the competition in pickups with 31. Some pundits wondered how she’d go feeding the circle in Liz Watson’s absence, but she’s taken the added pressure on her shoulders and handled it beautifully. 
4. The Vixens have had their full ten just once all season due to injuries to a range of players, and have shown they can cope with the unexpected beautifully. 

 

 

WHERE THEY WILL BE CHALLENGED

Thunderbirds:

1. Having re-injured her troublesome ankle in Rd 14, Lauren Frew is in a race against time to be fit for finals. And if she is absent, it does restrict the Thunderbirds circle rotations, given that both Romelda Aiken-George and Lucy Austin are most suited at goal shooter. For a rookie Frew has been remarkable, holding down the starting shooter position and playing with composure.
2. The supershot is a double edged sword for the Thunderbirds. They’ve barely used it all season, and haven’t needed to. So in a close final, how will they fit it into their playing structures? When these teams met in Rd 2, Vixens got the edge, scoring eight super shots, while Thunderbirds failed to score even one. 
3. The Thunderbirds’ form has been so impressive in the second half of the season, they haven’t had many close matches. This would have been a problem, but they received a good wake up call against Lightning in the final round. With top spot on the line, they toughed it out and just held on after a scare.
4. In previous years, Thunderbirds have been guilty of squandering the ball won by their defence. That has been a big improvement in the past two seasons, but their gain-to-goal rate is still the lowest out of all four finals teams.

 

Vixens:

1. While the Vixens have – through necessity – used players across a range of positions, the one area in which they have little depth is goal attack. Kiera Austin has been in strong form all season, but she’ll need to be wrapped in cotton wool across the finals. 
2. It’s no big secret where the danger lies for the Vixens. That Thunderbirds’ defensive back three is clearly the best in the league. In the two matches between the teams this year, Thunderbirds have racked up 39 possession gains, and 38 of them have come from just those three players. It is a huge task for Vixens to overcome them. 
3. In Round 13, Fever showed just how to rattle Sophie Garbin. She gave up five general play turnovers in her 30 minutes on court, and shot 17/19. While Lily Graham stood up beautifully, finishing with 17/25, Vixens will want their goal shooter firing. 
4. While the Vixens have experience all over court, they have lost three of their last four finals matches played, which could be a weight on their minds.
5. Surprisingly, Vixens have given away more contact penalties than any other team in the league, and around 10 per match more than the Thunderbirds. They’ll need to stay in play if they want to win. 

 

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QUIET ACHIEVER

Thunderbirds: For a first year player, Lauren Frew has stood up beautifully. The Thunderbirds starting goal attack since Round 1, Frew has played substantial minutes, and more than held her own against some of the league’s toughest defenders. In a shooting end that was expected by many to struggle, Frew has been a good foil to Romelda Aiken-George. 

Vixens: After just 25 minutes of court time across the season, Lily Graham came on in round 13 against the Fever and almost blew them away with her two point shooting. Graham finished with 6/9 supershots at 66%, making her a very valuable, if not so secret, weapon any more. 

 

A FEW KEY MATCH-UPS

Shamera Sterling-Humphrey v Sophie Garbin

While Garbin has largely been reliable for most of the season, both Sterling-Humphrey and Fever’s Kadie-Ann Dehaney have been able to rattle Garbin. She’s given up against a hefty number of turnovers, and had time on the bench in those two games, so Sterling-Humphrey will be hoping to rinse and repeat. 

Kate Moloney v Tayla Williams 

Both players are defensive centres, who’ve worked hard on their feeding games and been in exceptional form this year. Moloney has stepped up in Liz Watson’s absence, and has given away just 29 turnovers this season at an average of two per game. But while the general perception is that Williams is far more expensive, she isn’t. Her 43 turnovers is an average of just three per game, so the tussle between the pair will be fascinating.  

Georgie Horjus v Jo Weston

Who will get the tough job of trying to limit Horjus’ impact? Jo Weston got the job when the two sides last met, and while she picked off two gains, Horjus was outstanding. Finishing with 27 feeds and 27 centre pass receives, she also shot 10/11 as the Thunderbirds steamrolled the Vixens 73-58.

 

MINOR SEMI FINAL

West Coast Fever v Sunshine Coast Lightning

RAC Arena, Perth

Sunday, July 21

2pm AEST (12pm local time)

 

Previous clashes

Round 2: Fever 81 def Lightning 56 at RAC Arena

After a close first quarter, Fever put the foot down in the second, and Lightning simply had no answers. Fever pulled away as the match went on with a dominant performance all over the court. POTM Sunday Aryang

 

Round 8: Fever 71 def Lightning 68 at UniSC Arena

Unlike the first clash, this was close all game, with several lead changes. The third quarter proved the winning one with Fever taking it 19-15, but the match was in doubt until the final minute. POTM Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard

 

WHY THEY CAN WIN

Fever:

1. Travel is always a big part of Fever’s season, but in this case, they have the luxury of staying at home for a second week in a row. And what a home court advantage it is. Fever have had more fans through the gates this year than any other team, and could hit 13,000+ fans cheering them on. They’ve lost just one match at home this year.
2. As with most Fever games, you can’t go past one name – Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard – as a dominant figure. If Fever is to win, it’s almost guaranteed that the world’s best goal shooter will have a big part to play in the victory. 
3. While we’re on Fowler-Nembhard, it’s hard to go past the connections she’s built with Jamaican teammate and goal attack Shanice Beckford, and wing attack Alice Teague-Neeld. The two are some of the craftiest playmakers in the league, and if their connection with their goal shooter can hold, they will be tough to beat. 
4. Fever have led most of the positive team stats this season, being ranked most effective for centre pass conversions, gain conversions, turnover conversions, while also giving away less turnovers than any other team.   
5. Other than the Thunderbirds, Dan Ryan has gone to his bench more than any other team this season. Having tried a range of combinations, Ryan can give his team a more attacking or defensive look, depending on what is needed at the time. 

 

Lightning:

1. While Courtney Bruce’s injury has made life more difficult, Lightning are slowly growing one of the best defensive lines in the league. Ash Ervin has stepped up in Bruce’s absence, and is one of the few goal keepers who has given Fowler-Nembhard any trouble this season. Add in the ever-reliable Tara Hinchliffe, and the interchanging wing defences Mahalia Cassidy and Ava Black, and Lightning can apply plenty of defensive pressure. 
2. While they were slow to get started, Lightning are far better at coming up with the supershots when it counts. This season they’ve shot 26 more than Fever, at 58.9% – 8.3% more accurate than their opponents. 
3. Lightning are safe with the ball in hand, having had the lowest amount of intercepts taken against them this season, and the second lowest number of turnovers – just behind Fever. 
4. They have the world’s best wing attack in their midst in Liz Watson, who’s been delivering huge numbers every week. Leesa Mi Mi has also learned to work around Watson, staying out of her way while also delivering ball into the circle. Whether it’s Mi Mi or possibly Ervin, Lightning has unveiled two of the rookies of the season.  

 

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WHERE THEY WILL BE CHALLENGED

Fever:

1. Fever’s super shot strategy lacks consistency. They are the worst by accuracy (50.6%) and the second worst by volume in the league in attack. In defence, Fever can also be patchy – smothering at times, and allowing teams right back into the match at others.
2. Goal attack continues to be a challenge. Beckford is a stunning playmaker, but shaky at the post, especially given her lack of stature. Olivia Wilkinson is a star of the future and confident at the post, but lacks experience and perhaps the safe hands needed in a big game, while Teague-Neeld has also been swung into the circle to keep her connection with Fowler-Nembhard while allowing for change outside the circle.  
3. Consistency is also an issue when it comes to creating gains. Of the top four sides, Fever have fewer than the other three. With all teams so clinical with the ball, clubs have to be able to create their own opportunities. In a sign of improvement, over the last two rounds Fever have moved to a more defensive lineup, picking up 14 and 11 gains in each of the two matches. 
4. Finals experience could potentially be an issue too, with four of their players never having played SSN finals. While Olivia Wilkinson and Jordan Cransberg are in their first season, Fran Williams and Beckford have wide ranging international and domestic experience – just not in Australia. 
5. Fever had a whopping 25 point win over Lightning in Round 2, and then a narrow 3 point win in Round 8. Since that time, Lightning have improved immeasurably, and got their super shot up and running. While most are predicting a Fever win, it could be far closer than people think. 

 

Lightning:

1. Lightning have had a massive few weeks on the road, having not played at home since Round 11. Since then they’ve been to Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and now face the long road trip to Perth. Travel does take its toll, while allowing less time for recovery and training. 
2. There is a clear strategy for containing Lightning’s super shot prowess, as so far this season, Cara Koenen hasn’t converted one. Double teaming Steph Fretwell can reduce her impact, meaning that Lightning will have to be more content with ones, or introduce Reilley Batcheldor into the game earlier. 
3. Koenen’s mobility in the circle gives her opponents the yips, but her mobility outside the circle could potentially be predictable if an opponent team can set up a strategy to exploit it. Koenen has more second phase receives than any other player – at an average of 14 per game and something highly unusual for a goal shooter – so a mobile wing defence or centre could sag off their opponent to do some hunting. 
4. It’s taken some time for Lightning to blend their experienced players with their rookies. And while Black, Ervin and Mi Mi have all been terrific at various points of the season, they’ve yet to experience finals pressure. Mi Mi in particular can be expensive with ball in hand, and is likely to come up against the super experienced Jess Anstiss or Kelsey Browne. 

 

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QUIET ACHIEVER

Fever: Captain Jess Anstiss is one of the most underrated players in the league, playing consistent netball and always putting her body on the line for her club. New to the captaincy this year, Anstiss has done an exceptional job of blending six newly contracted players with the four existing ones, and Fever have marched seamlessly into the finals. 

Lightning: On the comeback trail from an ACL injury, Tara Hinchliffe has been crucial for Lightning at goal defence. She’s formed a strong connection with both goal keeper options, and while she sits well down on the gains list, like Tilly Garrett is a master of the shut down role. 

A FEW KEY MATCH UPS

1. The coaching box could provide one of the key match ups, with Belinda Reynolds returning to her former home state and club. Reynolds was Dan Ryan’s assistant in their 2022 premiership year, so the pair should know each other’s styles well. In recent weeks, Ryan has opted for a more defensive team, with Anstiss sitting at centre and Kelsey Browne on the bench, which could be a good foil to the Lightning’s attacking nous. 

Neither side has really nailed their two point strategy, and the winner could potentially be the side who does this the best. 

 

2. Wing attack worries. Liz Watson and Alice Teague-Neeld have been the two best wing attacks in the league all season. Ranked one and two – by a country mile – for centre pass receives and goal assists, no one has been able to really stop them yet, just reduce their effectiveness. 

Watson is a master at getting on to the edge of the circle, while the wily Teague-Neeld has a second-to-none connection with her shooter. Expect Aryang to take Watson on, even though Anstiss has had some success against her, as she may be needed for centre duties, while Lightning have three options they can try against Teague-Neeld. 

 

3. Fowler-Nembhard. Matching up against her is perhaps the toughest job in netty. She has a height and strength advantage over both likely opponents – Bruce and Ervin – and having trained against Bruce for many years at Fever, likely has little to fear from her. Ervin did get under her skin a little in Round 8, finishing with five gains, and has continued to improve since then. Potentially both players will be used to try and keep Fowler-Nembhard’s score to something respectable, but it’s unlikely the world’s best shooter will be having any of it.