15 rounds and 4683 goals later, the closest ANZ Premiership season yet has culminated with three teams capable of winning the whole competition. Three-time champions, the Pulse gave a dominant performance over the second place Tactix in the weekend to secure themselves a home grand final as well as the minor premiership.
The Mystics left it to the last minute to scrape past a resilient Stars team to be only one bonus point ahead of the Waikato Bay of Plenty Magic – securing themselves third place. However, third place is all they needed and they will now face the Tactix in the elimination final.
While a home-game advantage and a week off from the final may give the Central Pulse enough breathing space to secure their fourth championship, the winner of this weekend’s match isn’t going to make it easy. The resurging Mystics are back to full strength with the return of their superstars Grace Nweke and Elisapeta Toeava, and the Tactix have experienced strong wins over both sides in previous rounds, so really it is anyone’s title to claim.
This weekend is anyone’s game, and below Netball Scoop analyses where it might be won or lost.
Contributors – Tobey Keddy, Nicole Mudgway, Graeme Laughton-Mutu, Steve McLeod + Adrian Watkins
Cover image – Steve McLeod
Where: Tactix v Mystics, Saturday 27th July at 4.05pm at Wolfbrook Arena, Christchurch
Previous Clashes:
Round 3: Tactix by 3: Mystics 59 – Tactix 62 at The Trusts Arena, Auckland
“Similarly, there was anticipation for the Mystics and Tactix match-up to close the round: both teams had won both games so far, and the Tactix managed to beat the defending champs at home 62-59.” – Netball Scoop NZ Netball Round Up #1
Round 8: Tactix by 14: Mystics 42 – Tactix 56 at The Trusts Arena, Auckland
“Free-flowing attack and pressuring defence led the Tactix to a comprehensive victory over a Grace Nweke-less Mystics, 56-42. While the Tactix had more turnovers than the Mystics (26-23), their shooting accuracy at 93.3% and the defensive pressure of MVP Jane Watson was outstanding. The Northern Mystics tried every player on court to see if something would work, but their inability to score (77.7% accuracy) and their lack of consistent defensive pressure lost them the game.” – Netball Scoop NZ Netball Round Up #3
Round 12: Mystics by 12: Tactix 49 – Mystics 61 at Wolfbrook Arena, Christchurch
“Back to (basically) full strength, the Mystics surprised everyone but themselves with a convincing 61-49 win against table-toppers, the Tactix. The combined return of Grace Nweke and Peta Toeava restored the Mystics’ self-confidence, leaving the Cantabrian crowd somewhat silenced.” – NZ Netball Round Up #4
Analysis of the Northern Mystics
The Mystics have returned to form at exactly the right time, aided by the return of their world-class combination, Grace Nweke and Elizapeta Toeava. Every player in the Mystics team is integral to its success, but there’s no denying that what Nweke and Toeava can produce together is utter magic. However, an inconsistent season with limited high pressure situations could cause the defending champions (and championship favourites) to crack.
Shutting down the strength of Grace Nweke will be crucial for the Tactix on Saturday. Image – Graeme Laughton-Mutu
The Mystics’ attacking end has experienced more than its fair share of ups and downs. Early injuries to their starting GS and WA were major blows, and while the entirely fresh combination of Hannah Glen and Filda Vui improved in leaps and bounds, their development was no match for some of the stronger defensive pairings in the competition. Inconsistent shooting meant middies were forced to work overtime to get the ball closer to the post.
Now that Grace Nweke has returned into the fold, inconsistent shooting is an issue no more. Since her return in Round 11, the Mystics tend to dominate every time she is on the court. Nweke’s presence has increased the Mystics goals scored by 20+ goals a game. And despite several rounds on the sideline, Toeava (Nweke’s main accomplice) finished the competition with the most goal assists (442). They are a formidable pair, and their return to play has seen the Mystics ship steady and once again, pull forward.
The return of Nweke has also accentuated the impressive effort of the Mystics defensive end. Both Carys Stythe and Phoenix Karaka sit in the league’s top 5 for rebounds, top 10 for deflections and top 10 for intercepts. Now that their turnovers are more frequently converted, the Mystics are showing their ability to keep pushing that scoreboard up. With the last four rounds seeing the Mystics defeat the Tactix by 12, the Steel by 21, the Pulse by 10 and the Stars by 8, the Mystics are on fire. But the Tactix have beaten them already this season, so the question is whether they can do it again.
Analysis of Mainland Tactix
The early on favourites have, across the course of the season, slowly lost their momentum. However, a team full of former, present and future Silver Fern prospects may just need one week to turn things around and crack the code that is the Mystics.
Offensively, the Tactix were humming for the majority of the season. Their injury replacement for Aliyah Dunn, former Tactix player Ellie Bird, arrived as a lifesaver. Playing with nothing to lose, she led the league in shots scored and ended the regular season as the competition’s most accurate shooter (from top ten goals shot and attempted). Easily reconnecting with her former teammates, Te Paea Selby-Rickit, Erikana Pederson and Kimora Poi, the attacking combinations were smooth.
Karin Burger will need to grab more than 3 gains to help her side defeat the Mystics. Image – Adrian W
Somewhat unexpectedly, the return of star Ayliah Dunn has coincided with the team faltering slightly. Ball in hand, her individual performances have been fantastic. Since Round 11, has only missed four goals with an accuracy of 96.7%. However, the attacking end has been struggling to connect with her as cleanly as it was with Ellie Bird. Somewhat controversially, if the Tactix want to better their chances of coming out strong against the Mystics defensive end, starting Ellie Bird might be the way to go.
Defensively, the combination of Karin Burger and Jane Watson has, unsurprisingly, been phenomenal. They are both in the top 10 in defensive rebounds, top 5 in deflections and also in intercepts. Attacking ends have consistently struggled to manoeuvre themselves around the pair. They have also been ably supported in WD by two future Silver Fern prospects Paris Lokotui and Greer Sinclair. However, to keep up with the Mystics, all four of them have to be in tune on the day. After two out of three wins against the Mystics this season, they have good reason to be confident.
In summary
While the Tactix have the goods, we think the Mystics are more likely to deliver.
It is the Mystics game to lose and if they come out firing, we all know they’re a force to be reckoned with.
However, don’t expect the Tactix won’t go down without a fight – especially with the Canterbury crowd behind them!
