NS PREVIEW: 2024 SSN Grand Final

Here we are. The big one. For the third straight year, we have a sell out for the Grand Final. The decision of the South Australian government in backing this game has been rewarded, with Thunderbirds here and looking to go back-to-back. If Grand Finals were decided purely on the team in the best form coming in, then they would already be winners, having crushed the Vixens by 25 goals in the Major Semi Final. But we all know that it doesn’t work that way.

Vixens by virtue of finishing top two earned a second chance, and after their win over Fever last week, they get another shot at Thunderbirds in the decider. They will obviously need to improve greatly to challenge the champions, but they are certainly capable of doing it.

There will be great players all over the court, and great stories to go with them. Will Kate Moloney lead the Vixens to an upset win. Will Romelda Aiken-George earn another title? Can Kiera Austin and Sophie Garbin put it all together, or will Shamera Sterling-Humphrey and Latanya Wilson dominate proceedings once again?

The Jamaican defensive duo have starred for the Thunderbirds this year. Image: Hannah Howard | On The Ball Media

POSSIBLE LINE UPS

The Thunderbirds starting line up has been unchanged for several rounds, and it would be a big surprise if there was a change now. The only question mark is regarding the Vixens defence. They could possibly start Rudi Ellis, but Mannix played well last week and has far greater experience in big games.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall, in Super Netball and the ANZ Championship that preceded it, Vixens lead the head to head against Thunderbirds 25-13. In Super Netball, Vixens lead 11-6. However, in the past 11 meetings from 2020 onwards, it’s 6-5 in Thunderbirds’ favour. These teams have met just twice at this venue and it is 1-1.

In SSN clashes between these teams, Thunderbirds’ highest score is 73 from the round 12 match this year. That’s also their highest score ever in Super Netball. In the major semi final, Thunderbirds restricted Vixens to a score of 43. That is Vixens’ equal lowest ever score in Super Netball. Vixens’ highest score against Thunderbirds in SSN is 75, while they restricted Thunderbirds to just 39 last season.

Happy for the win - Sophie Garbin and Kiera Austin. Image Shaun Sharp/Moments By Shaun

Happy for the win – Sophie Garbin and Kiera Austin in Round 2. Image Shaun Sharp/Moments By Shaun

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Thunderbirds started quite well, but after a horror game against the Firebirds in Round 8, they have really lifted in form and gone on a seven game winning streak. Vixens led the competition for much of the year, winning 10 of their first 11 games, but they’ve hit a form slump, losing three of their past five, two of those losses being heavy defeats to the their Grand Final opponents.

PREVIOUS CLASHES

Round 2: Vixens 54 def Thunderbirds 53 (John Cain Arena)
In a real nailbiter, MVP Kate Moloney led the way for Vixens, while Kiera Austin came alive in the last quarter and got the team home, scoring the winning goal with just four seconds to go. That was despite fine games from Georgie Horjus and Shamera Sterling-Humphrey.

Round 12: Thunderbirds 73 def Vixens 58 (Adelaide Entertainment Centre)
MVP Sterling-Humphrey led the Thunderbirds defence in restricting the Vixens, while their in-form attackers capitalised at the other end, producing their highest ever score in SSN. Horjus combined beautifully with Romelda Aiken-George.

Major Semi-Final: Thunderbirds 68 def Vixens 43 (Adelaide 36ers Arena)
This was one way traffic as Thunderbirds consigned Vixens to their biggest ever defeat and their equal lowest SSN score. Sterling-Humphrey dominated once again and rookie Lauren Frew continued a fine first season and was named MVP.

Semi Final MVP Lauren Frew celebrates with Lucy Austin. Image: Hannah Howard | On The Ball Media

WHY THEY CAN WIN

Thunderbirds:

This will be the Thunderbirds’ third straight home game. In Adelaide this season, they are unbeaten in eight matches with an average winning margin of just over 18 goals. They haven’t had to travel in four weeks, so the comforts of home and a packed out Adelaide Entertainment Centre are all in their favour.
The Thunderbirds’ defence is on fire. And they have been especially damaging against the Vixens. In both the round 12 match and also the major semi final, Thunderbirds finished with three times as many possession gains as the Vixens. Over the course of the three clashes this year, Thunderbirds have had a whopping 63 gains to Vixens’ 24.
Shamera Sterling-Humphrey in particular, has been simply outstanding. In all three matches, she has had more gains than the entire Vixens team. She has had 34 gains in the three games, and if she continues on with that form, it’s hard to see it not resulting in a Thunderbirds win.
While Thunderbirds are known for their defence, the big difference this year is in attack. In past seasons, the team has been guilty of squandering opportunities. That improved in 2023, and it’s improved even further this year. Their average score has gone from 56.5 to 61.1 and that’s despite averaging 3 less super shots per game. Two of the reasons behind the improvement are Georgie Horjus and Lauren Frew. Horjus has always been talented, but she is now playing with great consistency. Meanwhile, Frew is having an outstanding rookie season.
Coach Tania Obst has given this team an almost perfect preparation so far. Her obvious plan of rest and rotation has reaped rewards, with a team that is fit and firing, and playing its best netball right at the most important time of the season. Frew is a perfect example. She is still yet to play a full game, despite how well she has gone so far. Obst has stuck firmly to her plans of regularly getting all 10 players out on court, leading to a team with numerous options.

Vixens:

Last week’s win will have given the Vixens much needed confidence. Although the win was ultimately a narrow one, the team put in a great performance to put themselves in a position of being up by 12 on West Coast Fever with 3 minutes to go. Some of the netball to that point was the Vixens at their very best.
The performance of the shooters in particular will have given the team a boost. A rejuvenated Sophie Garbin was back to her best and the connection between herself and Kiera Austin was as good as it has been this season. Austin is a vital member of the line up. Whenever she plays well, as she did last week, it almost always results in a strong Vixens showing. In round 2, it was Austin in the last quarter that proved the winning difference.
One area where Vixens could have a real advantage is in super shots, and all three of their shooters are capable of landing them. In 2024, Vixens are averaging 6.2 super shots per game, at 55% accuracy. That’s compared to Thunderbirds’ 2.3 per game at 49.3%.
Kate Eddy is a very underrated player, and an important member of the Vixens. Having missed much of the season through injury, she has been eased back into things and the Preliminary Final was her first full game since round 4. She was a part of the Vixens team which defeated Thunderbirds in round 2, and her defensive work gives the team added strength and versatility. If Vixens are to win, it’s likely Eddy will have played a big part.
Captain Kate Moloney is having a fantastic season, leading by example. Just like Eddy, she goes about her work with a minimum of fuss, but she has been tremendous this season while playing in combination with two less experienced wing attacks. If she and Hannah Mundy can overcome the relentless pressure of the Thunderbirds defence, they will go a long way towards winning the game.

The Vixens brains trust will have to work some magic this week. Image Aliesha Vicars

WHERE THEY WILL BE CHALLENGED

Thunderbirds:

It seems almost crazy to say this but have things been going too well for the Thunderbirds? Complacency shouldn’t be an issue with this team, but there could be one downside. In the second half of the season, they have barely been challenged. They have had just one close match in their past seven. If the match develops into a real scrap, will they be able to knuckle down and get the job done?
Super shots! It is the one area of Thunderbirds’ game that has seemingly gone backwards this year. For much of the season, they haven’t needed two-pointers, and on other occasions, it has looked like a conscious choice to not use them. But it can bring them undone. In round 2, Vixens scored eight super shots while Thunderbirds didn’t score any. And Vixens won the game by just one. Vixens will almost certainly be using the super shot again, so if the match is tight, how will Thunderbirds respond?
Thunderbirds have improved greatly in terms of turnovers this year. But it is still one area that can cause them trouble. The form and consistency of Georgie Horjus has been a major reason for the improvement, and when she was out injured in round 8, Thunderbirds turned in easily their worst performance of the year. If Vixens can negate the impact of Horjus, it will be up to the rest of the attack to steady the ship.

Vixens:

Can the Vixens recover from their past two encounters with Thunderbirds? Being on the wrong end of margins of 15 and 25, their confidence would have been at an all time low. They were absolutely shattered after the hammering they copped in the major semi final. But by finishing top two, they had earned a second chance, and here they are. They can do it, but it will take a bit of magic from Simone McKinnis and the team to turn things right around.
Quite simply, the opposition’s defence is a huge challenge. Thunderbirds’ defensive capabilities are well known, but as hard as it is to believe, they’ve gone to a whole new level this year. On average, Vixens are the second highest scoring team in Super Netball this year with 64.6 per game. But Thunderbirds have restricted them to just 54, 58, and 43. That score of 43 is Vixens’ lowest ever in SSN. While it is certainly possible to withstand the Thunderbirds’ defence for periods, it is a huge task to do it for the full four quarters. The attack end will have to stand up to the pressure.
Vixens are the second most expensive team in the competition when it comes to penalties, and the most expensive overall when it comes to contacts. Contrast that to Thunderbirds who are the least expensive in both of these categories. In last week’s Preliminary Final, Vixens gave away 20 penalties in each of the first three quarters, before tidying things up in the last quarter with 10. It will be tough enough to win this game without being repeatedly out of play.

Shamera Sterling-Humphrey has been dominant against Vixens this year. Image Hannah Howard/On the Ball Media.

A FEW KEY MATCH-UPS

Shamera Sterling-Humphrey v Sophie Garbin
Shamera Sterling-Humphrey has been a dominant force in matches between these two teams this year. She had the highest NNP of any player on court in all three games, and was responsible for restricting the impact of Sophie Garbin, even seeing her benched in round 12. Garbin returned to her best against Fever last week, but can she approach anything like that form against Sterling-Humphrey? Tough job.

Georgie Horjus v Kate Eddy/Jo Weston
With the way these two teams have handled things this season, there’s every chance that Horjus will come against both Eddy and Weston in this match. And both will have a tough job. Horjus has been one of the stories of the season so far. She is one of the Thunderbirds players who is regularly entrusted to play a full 60 minutes and she does it well, whether at wing attack or goal attack. Weston and Eddy are both shutdown specialists, but Horjus is proving very difficult to shut down.

Matilda Garret/Latanya Wilson v Kiera Austin
Kiera Austin is probably the most important member of the Vixens team when it comes to success in the grand final. As mentioned previously, the team’s chances largely hinge on a good performance from her, as they did when Vixens won in round 2. Garrett will no doubt start on Austin, but Wilson may also get the job at some point. If they can negate her effect and put her off her game, that will likely put Thunderbirds on the way to victory.

Kiera Austin was a well deserved MVP in the Preliminary Final. Image Aliesha Vicars

STATS WATCH

Here’s a scary thought for the Vixens heading into the grand final. Thunderbirds are the defending champions, but statistically speaking, this year’s team is superior to the winning 2023 team in almost every single category. The only statistic where they have noticeably gone backwards is in the scoring and accuracy of two point shooting. But it must be said that for much of this season, Thunderbirds have been so dominant, they haven’t really needed to use the super shot.

This table shows how both teams have performed on average per game in 2024. The stats suggest Vixens will have to be at their absolute best to win the grand final. A look at these numbers shows just how big the task is for them. As you can see, Thunderbirds totally dominate the defensive categories, being ranked first in all but one. Vixens aren’t ranked first in any of these 20 statistical categories, however they are ranked higher than Thunderbirds in several.